Earnings dropped as expected
FLI recorded a 32% decline in total revenues in fourth quarter 2020 (4Q20) due to the weakness experienced across all segments attributed to the negative effects of the pandemic. The revenue decline resulted in a 41% and 43% drop in operating and net income, respectively. On a full year basis, revenues hit P16.2 Billion in 2020 (32% lower versus the previous year but was slightly ahead of our estimate), while net income hit P3.7 Billion (also exceeded estimate).
On a quarterly basis, FLI recorded a 33% revenue jump on the back of the 50% increase in real estate revenues. As a result, net income increased 179% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to P1.1 Billion.
We believe FLI’s earnings still have room for further growth in the coming quarters, albeit at a slower pace, due to looser restrictions. Main downside risk to our forecast will be the resurgence of the virus as well as delays in the vaccine rollout, which could prompt the government to resort to stricter lockdowns.
We keep our Buy rating with a Target Price of Php 1.25 per share with FLI currently trading at a 39% discount to its 5-year average Price-to-Book (P/B) value. The planned REIT offering this year (~P13-15B) will also strengthen FLI’s balance sheet as it weathers the pandemic.